Only 18% of small business decision-makers are “very confident” in their marketing.

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If you asked a group of small business marketers how confident they are that their efforts are paying off, you might expect a reasonably optimistic response. After all, marketing budgets are up, AI tools are everywhere, and customer demand for personalized content is pushing innovation.

But the latest 2025 State of Small Business Marketing report reveals a startling statistic: only 18% of SMB marketers feel “very confident” in their marketing effectiveness. That’s a steep drop from 27% just a year ago. (The survey, conducted by Constant Contact, included over 2,500 marketing decision-makers in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.)

That’s a scary number. Fewer than 1 in 5 small business marketers believe their efforts are hitting the mark.

Fewer than 1 in 5 small business marketers are “very confident” in their marketing.

More Tools, Less Certainty

One might assume that the explosive growth of marketing technology, particularly generative AI, would boost confidence. And to some extent, it has enabled small teams to do more with less. According to the report, 48% of SMBs are already using AI, with top applications including writing copy, analyzing data, and generating visuals.

But here’s the twist: many don’t trust the very tools they’re using. Nearly a third of AI-using SMBs cite concerns about accuracy, brand voice mismatch, and loss of quality. In other words, the tools are helping them work faster—but not necessarily smarter.

It’s a classic example of what I call “frictionless inefficiency.” Technology removes obstacles but doesn’t guarantee you’re on the right track.

The Paradox of Progress

The confidence drop is, in part, psychological. More than a third of SMBs say they don’t know what’s working. Even as they pour more time, money, and resources into marketing, they feel like they’re guessing. The result? A dangerous blend of activity and anxiety.

This may explain the renewed love affair with email. It’s familiar, measurable, and trusted. In fact, 44% of SMBs now say email is their most effective channel, nearly double last year’s figure. But it’s hard to scale when half of marketers say they have less than an hour a day to spend on marketing.

So, What’s Going On?

We’re witnessing a confidence crisis fueled by complexity. Between shifting algorithms, rising customer expectations, and a deluge of martech options, small business marketers are overwhelmed, not under-skilled.

This isn’t just a small business issue, either. At larger organizations, I’ve seen similar patterns: more dashboards, more campaigns, and more meetings… but not always more clarity.

What CMOs and Leaders Can Do

If you lead a marketing team—or sell to SMBs—this data should be a wake-up call. Confidence isn’t a vanity metric. It’s a reflection of clarity, feedback, and repeatable success.

Here’s what I recommend:

• Measure what matters. If your dashboard has 19 KPIs, start over and focus on the few that count most.
• Invest in marketing enablement. Training and resources restore confidence more than new tools.
• Celebrate small wins. As James Clear and kaizen advocates would say, tiny improvements stack up.

And finally, remember: confidence isn’t about knowing everything will work. It’s about knowing what works for you—and why.